THE BUTTERFLY EFFECT

01 A systems experiment

One small shift.
A world of difference.

Consumption|Energy|Ecology|Population growth

Move a single lever and watch its consequences travel through atmosphere, land, health, economies, and everyday life.

Enter the simulator
ATMOSPHERE
SOCIETY
BIOSPHERE
Projected warming, 2100 +2.7°C baseline trajectory

02 Change the cause

Shape the future.

Explore scenarios, adjust six global forces and see how climate, land, health, economies, and cities respond through 2050.

Choose a scenario
Plant-forwardMeat-heavy
Office-firstDistributed
Fossil-heavyNear-zero carbon
Lower growthHigher growth
DeclineRestoration
Circular systemThrowaway system
LIVE MODEL

2050 outcome vs. current path

Directional model
Annual emissions change 0.0 GtCO₂e / year
Global warming +2.70°C projected in 2100
Land-use change 0 Mha versus current path
Healthy years change 0M globally / year
Economic change $0T annual in 2050
Contribution to annual emissions GtCO₂e / year
Meat0.0
Remote work0.0
Renewables0.0
Fertility0.0
Forest0.0
Food waste0.0
CITY PULSECurrent trajectory
Air quality 54Congestion 67
HABITATUnder pressure
42/100
resilience

03 Trace cause to consequence

A change never
travels alone.

Eating less meat reduces livestock demand. Land begins to recover, water pressure eases, and cleaner diets improve public health.

01◐Diet shiftsless livestock demand
02⌁Land returnspasture pressure falls
03✦Nature recovershabitats reconnect
04◎Health improvesrisk factors decline
GLOBAL EMISSIONS PATHWAY

Your choices bend the curve.

Current pathYour scenario
2025203020402050
Choose the cause

04 What this is

A compass,
not a crystal ball.

The Butterfly Effect is a transparent directional model. It translates six high-leverage global choices into linked outcomes using published ranges from climate, land-use, food systems, health, energy, and demographic research.

Evidence review07 AUG 2026
06System levers
2050Outcome horizon
06Evidence bodies
01 How the model works −

Each lever is normalized against a 2025 reference point, then mapped to 2050 outcomes through conservative response coefficients. Interactions—such as renewable electricity making remote work cleaner—are counted once to avoid double counting.

EvidenceIPCC · Demand & services · 2022 ↗UN DESA · Population prospects · 2024 ↗
02 What the numbers mean +

Results show the direction and approximate scale of change compared with a current-policy trajectory. They are illustrative global estimates, not country forecasts or policy advice.

EvidenceIPCC · Mitigation pathways · 2022 ↗IEA · Renewables · 2025 ↗FAO · Forest resources · 2025 ↗
03 Reference assumptions +

Rounded model inputs: 42 GtCO₂e annual emissions, 30% renewable electricity, 31% forest cover, 78 kg annual meat supply per person, 19% consumer food waste, 12% remote-capable workdays, and a 2.3 global fertility rate. These are scenario anchors rather than direct statistical readings.

EvidenceIEA · Global energy · 2026 ↗FAO · Global forests · 2025 ↗UNEP · Food waste · 2024 ↗WHO · Healthy diet · 2026 ↗UN DESA · Population · 2024 ↗